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How will the central bank assess risk events and fiscal policy in 2019?

发稿时间:2019-01-17 来源: eurtoday


  The impact of brexit will depend on the direction, the magnitude and the speed with which the economy becomes less open. The direction is clear. The impact is the weakening of supply and demand, the decline of exchange rate and the rise of inflation. In terms of amplitude, the degree of decline in openness is different under different brexit scenarios, which mainly affects Britain's trade, foreign direct investment, productivity, exchange rate, consumer price, unemployment rate and the number of immigrants. In terms of speed, the extent of the impact of the border and transport and financial services stoppage depends on the level of readiness of the company. According to the assessment, many business sectors are not equipped to cope with the "no-deal brexit".

  Three brexit scenarios and their impacts: the bank of England analyzed the impact of the three scenarios of soft brexit (Britain maintains economic partnership with the eu), hard brexit (no agreement, no transition brexit) and neutral brexit (transition to WTO mode) on the UK. Under the three scenarios, trade, output and net migration all decline to different degrees (degree of decline: hard brexit, > neutral brexit, > soft brexit), sterling appreciates under soft brexit, while sterling depreciates under neutral and hard brexit. Compared with the economic path before the referendum, the GDP of the UK will decline in different degrees in all three cases (soft brexit, neutral brexit and hard brexit will reduce the GDP by 1.25% to 3.75 percent, 5.25% to 8.25 percent and 7.75% to 10.5 percentage points respectively).

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