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Crude oil has stopped falling again!

发稿时间:2018-12-12 来源: eurtoday


  Ten days ago, when international oil prices plunged, we lamented that $50 might not be impossible. We could not expect it to happen so soon. This week, the market experienced two more one-day declines. It completely destroyed the psychology of market investors and shocked many experts. The release of market risk aversion makes investors, whether focused on fundamentals or technicians, confused and, of course, breaks the "glass heart" of a place. Imagine how crude oil would have fallen by nearly 8% on Friday evening if it hadn't been for the extreme of pessimism and panic. At present, worries about oversupply affecting crude oil prices are of course a very important reason, but behind the continuous sharp fall in oil prices is not just such a simple factor. The global economic slowdown, financial markets, especially the global stock market plunge led by Dow Jones, clearly amplified the market's pessimistic worries. Investor sentiment is the most difficult to quantify, but the analysis of various factors can still clarify the market context and make an objective assessment of the market as far as possible.
  As far as the current market situation is concerned, OPEC will probably implement the strategy of reducing production, but whether N-OPEC can reduce production still needs to draw a big question mark, such as Russia.
  Russia's current crude oil production has exceeded its highest level in history, and there is no sign that Russia's momentum of increasing production is ending. In terms of Russia's dependence on oil prices, its fiscal balance has dropped from $60 to less than $50, and production costs are still declining, so the current price is totally acceptable to Russia, and it is absolutely unnecessary for him to join in the production cuts.

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